By Katherine Brady, Intern at Geocase
Introduction
The two important South Caucasus states of Armenia and Georgia exist as neighboring nations that share multiple historical relationships while currently deepening their economic ties and developing their strategic alliances. The South Caucasus security framework underwent significant changes over the past five years, driven by the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and the dissolution of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in 2023, and Armenia’s gradual distancing from Russian influence. The changes have made Georgia an essential entry point for Armenia to reach the Black Sea and Europe, thus strengthening bilateral relations between the nations. Strategic partnership declarations exist but the actual cooperation between these nations remains primarily unstructured with occasional difficulties due to different foreign policy approaches and unresolved regional conflicts. The research evaluates contemporary relations between Armenia and Georgia while analyzing their strategic value along with partnership obstacles and potential long-term collaboration possibilities.
Armenia’s primary overland access to the outside world is through Georgia, as its borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan remain closed. Georgia serves as the main transit route for a significant portion of Armenia’s imports and exports, though exact figures vary by year. Russian natural gas is delivered to Armenia through a pipeline crossing Georgian territory, and there have been discussions about enhancing energy connectivity, including electricity transmission. Georgia maintains a stable trading relationship with Armenia and considers its neighbor to be a dependable partner. The two countries increased their bilateral trade volume to surpass $270 million in recent years compared to past years. Armenia depends substantially more on Georgia for trade than Georgia depends on Armenia. Most Armenian–Georgian collaboration functions as logistical support rather than shared business ventures. Both Armenia and Georgia require economic initiatives where they participate as equal partners. The countries need to create innovative cooperative frameworks that go beyond transportation routes to develop mutual investments and collective infrastructure development. The two nations established their “strategic partnership” during January 2024 but the execution of this agreement has been delayed. The failure to develop institutionalized economic projects limits the enduring value of this announcement. The creation of joint projects such as transshipment hubs, energy co-investment, regional tech parks, and other business e-commerce systems will help establish a stronger alliance.
Obstacles to Strategic Alignment
The practical ties between Armenia and Georgia do not eliminate the substantial challenges that prevent strategic integration between the nations. Strategic integration between the two countries faces its main obstacles from their opposing foreign policy directions. Georgia has consistently pursued Euro-Atlantic integration, seeking NATO membership and deeper ties with the European Union, while Armenia remains part of Russian-led security and economic blocs–including the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The Russian failure to protect Armenian interests during 2020 and 2023 led Armenia to distance itself from Moscow. There have been discussions in Armenia about joint cooperation regarding security and defense, and it seems that the country is moving towards joining Western institutions. These divergent alignments shape their respective security doctrines, diplomatic partnerships, and economic policies, creating a structural mismatch that limits the potential for deeper strategic coordination.
Since its inception, Georgia has dedicated itself to joining NATO and the European Union as part of its Euro-Atlantic integration strategy. The recent internal political changes in Georgia have put its Western trajectory on hold but the country maintains a declared pro-Western stance. The different political positions of Armenia and Georgia create barriers for achieving complete strategic cooperation. Analysts suggest that Georgia may approach closer ties with Armenia cautiously, given Armenia’s historical military and economic connections with Russia. However, regional realities are shifting in ways that may compel greater cooperation. In particular, Azerbaijan’s growing influence, both militarily and economically, has begun to reshape the strategic environment, prompting shared concerns in both Yerevan and Tbilisi. The mutual challenge of Azerbaijan’s expanding influence in the region stands as a significant point for potential cooperation between Armenia and Georgia. The combination of military victories and Turkish alliances enabled Azerbaijan to emerge as the strongest regional power in the area. Armenia along with Georgia faces a new geopolitical reality where Azerbaijan maintains expanding power in both economic and political spheres.
The resistance of Azerbaijani regional domination could serve as a foundation for future Armenian-Georgian cooperation. The economic dependence of Georgia on Azerbaijan for gas and trade does not stop the country from exercising strategic balancing when Baku’s actions endanger regional stability or sovereignty. Recent military losses have made it unlikely for Armenia to support a complete dominance of Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus region. The establishment of institutionalized bilateral ties faces increased risks due to the emerging prospects of trilateral competition instead of cooperation. The implementation of shared infrastructure together with joint energy ventures and coordinated diplomatic efforts functions as a soft countermeasure to check the dominance of any single regional power.
Future Scenarios and Strategic Outlook
Multiple strategic scenarios will determine the future direction of Armenia–Georgia relations. The two nations maintain solid working relations, yet their long-term strategic partnership remains uncertain because of changing regional dynamics. Armenia and Georgia could strengthen their partnership by working together on infrastructure, energy, and cultural exchange projects. The future development depends heavily on the state of regional security and the level of external interference.
Three possible trajectories include:
Optimistic scenario:
A lasting peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan enables Georgia and Armenia to strengthen their cooperation through energy transit, regional infrastructure development, and cultural exchange programs. Western-backed initiatives in sanctions enforcement and connectivity projects would support the development of a wider regional alignment between pro-Western actors, including Tbilisi and Yerevan.
Pessimistic scenario:
The South Caucasus region becomes destabilized if Russia reasserts dominance or intensifies its regional influence. Georgia faces Western security threats while Armenia remains in an uncertain position because of Moscow’s increased pressure. The foreign policy differences between Tbilisi and Yerevan make strategic cooperation between the two countries increasingly challenging.
Status quo scenario:
Armenia and Georgia maintain practical cooperation through trade, transit, and limited energy projects but they do not establish deeper strategic partnerships. Cultural and civil society exchanges remain active but major geopolitical differences between NATO, the EU, and Russian alignments prevent any formal strategic partnership from forming.
The positive relations between Georgia and Armenia remain vital because they enable Armenia to reach Western markets while maintaining South Caucasus stability. The future direction depends heavily on bilateral interests together with each country’s ability to position itself in the evolving fragmented regional structure.
Conclusion
The geographical connection between Armenia and Georgia together with their mutual infrastructure and common strategic threats maintain their relationship despite their different international policy approaches. The two nations have maintained a cautious relationship which grows more significant because they need to handle an evolving regional landscape. The Western connection through Georgia enables Armenia to maintain its position as a stabilizing force in regions controlled by powerful states: Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. The challenge lies in inserting tangible components into this strategic partnership. The upcoming years present the chance to execute this specific objective. Armenia and Georgia can establish a durable alliance through strategic vision and joint execution while building on their geographical connection.