Czech daily newspaper, Lidovky.cz, has published insights from Victor Kipiani regarding Georgia's internal political developments.
An engish version of the publication:
Sixteen years ago, a picture from a war suddenly broke out around the world. In the photo, a bloodied woman is sitting in the middle of the rubble, and behind her, a gas pipe cut by shrapnel is burning. Woman screams in pain. In early August 2008, the Russian army bombed Joseph Stalin's hometown, Gori, Georgia. Shortly afterwards, soldiers with a double-headed eagle on their uniforms occupied it. The occupation lasted ten days.
It was one of the chapters of the Caucasian War between Russia, Georgia, the rebellious South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Its result was the recognition of breakaway entities by Moscow and the strengthening of Russian military influence in them. Political and economic he was there long before.
In the middle of September this year, as part of a pre-election meeting before the upcoming parliamentary elections, ex-prime minister and gray eminence of Georgian politics, Bidzina Ivanishvili, made a controversial speech in Gori, which surprised and to some extent angered part of Georgian society.
"Today we are well aware that the August war in 2008 was not the wish of either the Georgian or the Ossetian people. So, when we reveal the culprits of the bloody conflict between the brothers and bring the culprits to legal responsibility for this terrible crime, the issue of restoring relations will certainly be on the agenda," Ivanishvili was heard to say.
At the same time, the richest Georgian oligarch, whose assets reach almost 5 billion dollars, added, "that the fratricidal conflict imposed on our peoples by the enemies of Georgia will end precisely with historical mutual forgiveness and sincere reconciliation."
However, in Ivanishvili's view, the one who imposed an armed conflict on the Georgians and Ossetians was not Russia, but the competing political force of the National Movement, led by then-President Mikheil Saakashvili. He has been behind bars for the past three years.
In early October, Edison Research conducted a public opinion poll, according to which the governing Georgian Dream party founded by Ivanishvili would receive 33 percent of the vote, the pro-Western unification of the National Movement, European Georgia and the Agmashenebeli Strategy would come in second with 19 percent, and the pro-Western Coalition for changes.
While political groups oriented to the West have signed the Georgian Charter of President Salome Zurabishvili on the country's pro-European orientation, they have a mathematical sum of fifty-five percent preferences.
Passing anti-liberal laws
The pragmatic government of the Georgian Dream, on the other hand, deliberately moves away from European integration. Economic ties to Russia and China, but also the approval of various anti-liberal laws such as the law on so-called foreign agents or the law banning the so-called LGBT+ promotion.
Parliamentary elections will be held in the country on October 26. And Georgian Dream, which has ruled for the past twelve years, can be unnerving, which is why it is resorting to controversial steps.
"Ivanishvili's statement is aimed at the domestic consumer. The only purpose of such a statement is to try to give the impression that the Georgian Dream is supposed to have a clear idea of restoring the territorial integrity of Georgia. This declaration has a pre-election character and is intended to unite the voters of the Georgian Dream," explains Viktor Kipiani, head of the Georgian analytical center Geocase, in an interview with Lidovky.cz.
The Georgian expert is convinced that Ivanishvili's statement undermines Georgia's international position and does not contribute to the promotion of the internationally recognized restoration of the country's territorial integrity.
"It is not clear what will follow this statement. The Georgian dream has no concrete plan, nor any preliminary agreement with Moscow," adds Kipiani.
“The narrative that the Georgian Dream government could agree with the Russians on the reintegration of South Ossetia and Abkhazia began to emerge about a year ago. It appeared gradually. First there were hints, then there were more concrete statements, and the highlight was essentially Bidzina Ivanišvili's statement," says Tomáš Baranec, head of the Caucasus program of the independent Slovak consulting firm Strategic Analysis, in an interview with Lidovky.cz.
A Slovak expert who has been working in Georgia for a long time states that neither Ossetians nor Abkhazians are convinced that Ivanishvili's statement is nothing more than a pre-election statement.
"Rather, they think it's part of the Georgia Dream election campaign. If Georgian Dream were to remain in power after the elections, there would probably be some reintegration steps, but rather limited ones. For example, the opening of de facto established borders. But full reintegration is highly unlikely. So I don't think it was an honest statement by Ivanishvili, it's more a part of the pre-election campaign," adds Baranec.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia broke away from Georgia at the end of the 1990s as a result of an armed conflict, which in the case of the battles for Abkhazia was extremely bloody. Moscow, which, unlike the overwhelming majority of the international community, recognized the independence of these territories after the August war in 2008.
At the beginning of this October, the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, met in Moscow with the South Ossetian foreign minister Akhsar Dzhioev, to whom he confirmed that Moscow will continue to consider South Ossetia as an independent state.
“I cannot imagine, in the foreseeable or distant future, any Georgian government that would recognize the occupation and recognize the separation of these provinces. It is clear that international law does not recognize occupation as long as the international community is sane.
There are the real effects of the war, the real consequences of the continued occupation by the Russian Federation, the real consequences of the expulsion of Georgians from both Abkhazia and Samachabl (the Georgian name for South Ossetia, editor's note). And the real consequences are that so far neither international law nor any other institution has the authority to resolve this conflict," Kipiani thinks.
Georgians would like the return of the separated territories
Baranec points out that Georgians would like the return of the separated territories, but there is a catch.
"There is a certain group within Georgian society that would support reintegration even at such a price that Georgia would get back into the Russian orbit. This is essentially what the Georgian Dream indirectly offers. Return to Russian orbit in exchange for reintegration. Something similar already happened at the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries. However, this would be unacceptable to another segment of Georgian society, which would not want to sacrifice the vision of some kind of better life through integration into Western structures in exchange for getting back Abkhazia and Ossetia. Not everyone is willing to pay too high a price for the return of these territories," says the Slovak expert.
However, even the rebellious entities are not flocking back to Georgia. As Baranec points out, there are very specific reasons for this.
"For Abkhazians, reintegration with Georgia would mean the return of expelled Georgians. From their point of view, this would mean the extinction of the Abkhazian ethnicity in the medium term. This is absolutely unacceptable for them. Abkhazians were the dominant ethnic group in Abkhazia until about 1866, when there was an uprising harshly suppressed by Russia. Subsequently, there was an exodus of some Abkhazians and the colonization of the territory by Georgians. That's why the war at the beginning of the 90s was so bloody, the expert explains.
According to him, unlike the Abkhazians, the Ossetians historically had better relations. During the Soviet Union, Ossetians and Georgians had very good relations, their conflict was not ethnic, but rather political.
"However, the young Ossetian generation does not remember coexistence with Georgians. They mostly remember the bombing of the metropolis of Tskhinvali and perceive Georgians as dangerous aggressors. The goal of the Ossetians is rather unification with North Ossetia-Alania, which is part of the Russian Federation. In other words, the unification of the Ossetian ethnic group within one political unit," says Tomáš Baranec.